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Residential Property

BIS Oxford Economics forecasts house prices by Australian capital city and dwelling commencements by state. BIS Oxford Economics has extensive expertise in forecasting the housing market for investors and owner-occupiers, along with having a thorough understanding of demographic trends.

Residential Property Prospects 2018 – 2021

Report Published: June 2018

Price on application

Contact: Joy Xenita

+61 2 8458 4220

Investor demand has weakened through 2017/18 as banks tighten lending policy to investors in response to APRA guidelines. In particular, prices in the main investor centres of Sydney and Melbourne appear to be retreating. Meanwhile, Hobart and Canberra continue to experience solid house price rises, while the markets in the other capital cities are more subdued.

Overall, price growth across the capital cities remains patchy, with each being driven by their own local demand and supply factors. As well as changes to lending policy, some markets are still feeling the impact of the downturn in resource sector investment, while rising new dwelling supply is also beginning to dampen a number of markets. On the positive side, first home buyer demand has surged in a number of states, while solid growth in net overseas migration is contributing to demand.

On balance what will be the impact for prices across each of the capital city markets? Will there be a difference across the house and unit markets? Which cities will offer the best prospects over the next three years?


Residential Property Prospects 2018 – 2021 is a comprehensive report that provides a detailed and independent view of the fundamentals of the residential market and how they interact to drive activity and price growth across the different state markets. Forecasts are provided with a three year outlook aimed to identify turning points in the market with a view to help understand where opportunities are likely to present themselves.

Residential Property Prospects 2018 – 2021 details the underlying assumptions behind our forecasts, with the reasoning behind each. This includes:

  • the economic outlook and business condition
  • interest rate movements and timings, housing loan affordability
  • impact of Federal and State government incentives, as well as other regulatory policy
  • net interstate and overseas migration
  • underlying demand and dwelling construction
  • stock deficiencies or oversupply in each market
  • rental growth and yields for detached houses and units by capital city
  • annual median house and unit price forecasts to June 2021, by capital city and also the regional areas of Newcastle, 
  • Wollongong, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Townsville and Cairns (house price forecasts only)

A base subscription to Residential Property Prospects 2018 – 2021 includes PDF copies of the main report, together with an update report published in December. Quarterly Market Briefs are also emailed in September and March to keep you up-to-date with events impacting on the residential market.

The new enhanced online subscription to Residential Property Prospects 2018 – 2021 includes the base service, as well as continuous analysis and responses to market occurrences and data releases via regular Research Briefings with analysis of key events and underlying trends in Australia’s residential markets; and Data Insights providing our immediate assessment of key data releases and events. The service also includes detailed Online Databases of key residential market indicators and selected forecasts contained in the report.

Subscribers will have access to our team of residential property consultants and analysts throughout the year for enquiries or to discuss forecasts, content or methodologies.

For further information download the flyer and order form or for enquiries please contact Angie Zigomanis on +61 3 8679 7304 or azigomanis@bisoxfordeconomics.com.au