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Residential Property

BIS Oxford Economics forecasts house prices by Australian capital city and dwelling commencements by state. BIS Oxford Economics has extensive expertise in forecasting the housing market for investors and owner-occupiers, along with having a thorough understanding of demographic trends.

Residential Property Prospects 2017 – 2020

Report Published: December 2017


Contact: Joy Xenita

+61 2 8458 4220


Investor demand started to weaken in the second half of 2017. Banks have further tightened lending policy to investors in response to additional APRA guidelines introduced earlier in the year. Preliminary data suggests that price growth in the main investor centres of Sydney and Melbourne has begun to slow. Meanwhile, Hobart and Canberra continue to experience solid house price rises, while the markets in the other capital cities are more subdued.

Overall, price growth across the capital cities remain patchy, with each being driven by their own local demand and supply factors. As well as changes to lending policy, some markets are still feeling the impact of the downturn in resource sector investment, while strong growth in new dwelling supply in recent years is also beginning to dampen a number of markets. On the positive side, owner occupier demand continues to hold up (and first home buyer demand is rebounding in New South Wales and Victoria), while solid growth in net overseas migration inflows is contributing to demand.

On balance what will be the impact for prices across each of the capital city markets? Will there be a difference across the house and unit markets? Which cities will offer the best prospects over the next three years?

Residential Property Prospects 2017 – 2020 is a comprehensive report that provides a detailed and independent view of the fundamentals of the residential market and how they interact to drive activity and price growth across the different state markets. Forecasts are based on current and emerging trends, rather than media commentary around the 24 hour news cycle, with a three year outlook aimed to identify turning points in the market with a view to understand where price growth is likely to be, rather than where it is already occurring.

Residential Property Prospects 2017 – 2020 details the underlying assumptions behind our forecasts, with the reasoning behind each. This includes:

  • the economic outlook and business conditions
  • interest rate movements and timings, housing loan affordability
  • impact of Federal and State government incentives
  • net interstate and overseas migration
  • underlying demand and dwelling construction
  • stock deficiencies or oversupply in each market
  • rental growth and yields for detached houses and units by capital city
  • annual median house and unit price forecasts to June 2020, by capital city and also the regional areas of Newcastle, Wollongong, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Townsville and Cairns (house price forecasts only)

A subscription to Residential Property Prospects 2017 – 2020 includes PDF copies of the main report, together with an update report published in December. Quarterly Market Briefs are also emailed in September and March to keep you up-to-date with events impacting on the residential market and your organisation will have access to our team of residential property consultants and analysts throughout the year for enquiries or to discuss forecasts, content or methodologies.

For further information download the extract or for enquiries please contact Angie Zigomanis on +61 3 8679 7304 or

Prices exclude GST.