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Economics

BIS Oxford Economics compiles detailed research and forecasts for the Australian economy. Over the last 50+ years BIS Oxford Economics has earned an outstanding reputation for picking the major shifts and turning points in the economy.

Long Term Forecasts

Report Published: August 2017

Price:

Contact: Joy Xenita

+61 2 8458 4220

QUARTERLY UPDATE NOW AVAILABLE!

In partnership with our Economic Outlook service, our Long Term Forecasts report provides clients with in-depth analysis of the fundamental drivers of Australia’s economy for the next 15 years. Underlying structural adjustments in the economy will be highlighted, as well as cyclical influences and key drivers. The report and accompanying data files will help clients to analyse historical and forecast data and gain insights into the latest economic developments and their impacts.

Utilising the decades of experience the BIS Oxford Economics' team have in forecasting, and our suite of macroeconomic models and monitoring tools, the report will discuss:

  • How much will economic growth be held back by the looming residential construction downturn
  • How much longer will the downturn in mining investment last?
  • What will drive growth and better business conditions in the wider economy? When will broad-based growth return?
  • The key to growth is a marked strengthening in non-mining business investment. When will this happen?
  • When will interest rates start rising back towards ‘neutral’? The paths of inflation and wages are key..
  • What will drive households to lift spending on retail goods and services?
  • Risks and outlook for global economic growth.

A subscription to the Long Term Forecasts 2017 – 2032 report includes:  

  • The main Long Term Forecasts 2017 – 2032 report, published August 2017
  • A mid-financial year Update Report providing new commentary and forecasts
  • Access to our team of economists through to April 2018 to discuss implications of forecasts, methodologies etc.
  • Individual chapters contain detailed coverage of specific areas along with a summary table of key drivers and directions, including:
    > Outlook for the global economy, the Australian dollar and Australia’s external trade
    > Population and the labour market
    > Household income and consumer demand including forecasts by retail and services expenditure categories 
    > Fiscal Policies
    > Investment; including residential and non-residential construction, machinery and equipment, infrastructure, biological resources and intellectual property
  • Wages growth, price inflation and interest rates
  • Industry prospects, including the sub-components of the manufacturing industry

Online subscribers receive access to our website to download chapters in PDF format, and charts and tables in MS Excel from both the main report and the mid-financial year update. The online service also provides quarterly updates of forecasts after the release of the National Accounts data. Online access may be shared with up to four other staff members for greater utilisation of the service.

 

QUARTERLY UDATE - OCTOBER 2017

Excel document files for download by subscribers.

LTF QUARTERLY UPDATE - OCTOBER 2017 (xls, 79 KB)

REPORT – AUGUST 2017

Adobe PDF document files for download by subscribers.

FULL REPORT: LONG TERM FORECASTS 2017 – 2032 (pdf, 2.99 MB)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (pdf, 242 KB)

OVERVIEW (pdf, 413 KB)

INTRODUCTION (pdf, 231 KB)

CHAPTER 1 – THE WORLD ECONOMY, EXCHANGE RATES AND TRADE (pdf, 405 KB)

CHAPTER 2 – THE LABOUR MARKET AND POPULATION TRENDS (pdf, 309 KB)

CHAPTER 3 – CONSUMER DEMAND FORECASTS (pdf, 370 KB)

CHAPTER 4 – GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND FISCAL POLICY (pdf, 432 KB)

CHAPTER 5 – INVESTMENT FORECASTS (pdf, 477 KB)

CHAPTER 6 – PRICES, WAGES AND INTEREST RATES (pdf, 355 KB)

CHAPTER 7 – INDUSTRY PROSPECTS (pdf, 432 KB)

CHAPTER 8 – OUTLOOK FOR THE MAJOR MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY SECTORS (pdf, 445 KB)

TABLES – AUGUST 2017

Excel document files for download by subscribers.

TABLES: LTF 2017 REPORT (xls, 1.70 MB)

CHARTS – AUGUST 2017

PowerPoint document files for download by subscribers.

CHARTS: LTF 2017 REPORT (ppt, 3.13 MB)