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BIS Oxford Economics

BIS Shrapnel are excited to announce that Oxford Economics, one of the world’s foremost independent global advisory firms has acquired a controlling stake in BIS Shrapnel. The new company will be renamed BIS Oxford Economics.
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Latest analysis from Australia

  • Country Economic Forecasts | Oct 17 2017
    The high frequency surveys continue to report a divergence between business and consumer confidence. Although the October Westpac-MI sentiment index jumped into positive territory, the underlying...
    Research Briefings | Oct 16 2017
    Unlike some developed economies, we do not expect the RBA to begin tightening policy in the near term (our previous article discusses the interest rate outlook ). And when the cash rate does begin to...
    Australia Data Insights | Oct 05 2017
    Australia’s trade surplus edged higher to A$989mn in August, with exports rising 0.5% m/m and imports falling slightly. The pick-up in exports was broad-based, with both goods and services...
    Data Insights | Oct 03 2017
    As widely expected, the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The Board highlighted continued improvements in the global economy and strong...
    Research Briefings | Sep 28 2017
    We think the AUD will depreciate to around US$0.75 by June 2018 in part due to the US-Australia interest rate differential narrowing by more than markets expect – unlike the market consensus, we...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Sep 18 2017
    The pace of growth picked up in Q2, with the economy matching our forecast and expanding 0.8% q/q. Government spending drove domestic demand, with current consumption rising 1.2% and government...
  • Data Insights | Sep 07 2017
    The trade balance fell to a $460 million surplus in July, a further decline from the historically high levels seen in the first three months of 2017. Exports fell 2.2%, driven down by non-rural goods,...
    Data Insights | Sep 06 2017
    In line with our forecast, Australia’s economy grew by 0.8% q/q in Q2 2017, equivalent to 1.8% on the year. Government expenditure was the key driver, with current consumption increasing by 1.2% q/q...
    Data Insights | Sep 05 2017
    In line with expectations, the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to maintain the cash rate at 1.5%. The Board still expects growth to gradually accelerate over FY2018. They expect...
    NEW REPORT | Aug 24 2017
    This is the latest comprehensive study of the Melbourne industrial market undertaken by BIS Oxford Economics. This study analyses prime and secondary property markets in Melbourne. Our study provides...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Aug 18 2017
    Recent economic surveys have been mixed, with business confidence well into expansionary territory but consumer confidence showing pessimism across households. But we expect business confidence to...
    NEW REPORT | Aug 18 2017
    In partnership with our Economic Outlook service, our Long Term Forecasts report provides clients with in-depth analysis of the fundamental drivers of Australia’s economy for the next 15 years....
  • NEW REPORT | Aug 11 2017
    This report provides forecasts and strategies for the Brisbane CBD, the Near City and metropolitan office markets. Ten year forecasts of supply and demand variables, vacancy rates, premium, A and B...
    NEW REPORT | Aug 04 2017
    Building and Construction in India consists of an annual country report, plus three quarterly updates, and a ‘hotline’ consultancy which allows subscribers to access the consultants involved in the...
    Data Insights | Aug 03 2017
    The trade balance closed out FY17 with a $0.9 billion surplus, cooling on the back of a strong surplus in May. Driving this was a softening of non-rural exports (-3.6%m/m), while goods imports picked...
    NEW REPORT | Aug 02 2017
    Analyses trends and gives forecasts for residential and non-residential building within states, by regional area. The forecasting horizon is 2 years ahead. Each state sold separately. Annual...
    Data Insights | Aug 01 2017
    As widely expected, the Board of the Reserve Bank decided to maintain the cash rate at 1.5%. The Board highlighted continued improvements in the global economy and strong employment growth over recent...
    NEW REPORT | Jul 31 2017
    Building and Construction in Taiwan consists of an annual country report, plus three quarterly updates, and a ‘hotline’ consultancy which allows subscribers to access the consultants involved in the...
  • Research Briefings | Jul 24 2017
    Australia will not be leaning toward tightening just yet. The end of the commodities boom has led to structural changes that are shifting resources – particularly labour – out of the mining sector....
    NEW REPORT | Jul 24 2017
    This report examines the overall structure of retailing in Australia and draws out key trends and issues in terms of both trading conditions and investment performance. It focuses on the main classes...
    NEW REPORT | Jul 21 2017
    China is an evolving market driven by industry trends, demographic factors, economic indicators and government policy changes. Receive quarterly forecasts for residential, non-residential and...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Jul 20 2017
    Recent data have confirmed our view that growth will remain steady in the short term. Merchandise exports rebounded in May after a sharp contraction in April (a result of disruption caused by Cyclone...
    NEW REPORT | Jul 20 2017
    Provides a respected and independent medium term assessment of the Australian building industry outlook. Building in Australia contains demographic trends and detailed forecasts of residential...
    NEW REPORT | Jul 07 2017
    Indonesia is an evolving market driven by industry trends, demographic factors, economic indicators and government policy changes. Receive quarterly forecasts for residential, non-residential and...
  • Data Insights | Jul 06 2017
    Strong surpluses continue in May, with the trade balance strengthening to $2.5 billion. Driving this was strength in both rural (2.9% m/m) and non-rural (12.7% m/m) goods exports, while imports also...
    Data Insights | Jul 04 2017
    The Reserve Bank Board met today and, as widely expected, decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%.The Board assessed that GDP growth is tracking below trend — with spare capacity in the...
    NEW REPORT | Jul 03 2017
    Vietnam is an evolving market driven by industry trends, demographic factors, economic indicators and government policy changes. Receive quarterly forecasts for residential, non-residential and...
    NEW REPORT | Jul 03 2017
    The Philippines is an evolving market driven by industry trends, demographic factors, economic indicators and government policy changes. Receive quarterly forecasts for residential, non-residential...
    Data Insights | Jun 27 2017
    The first release of the 2016 Census highlighted an additional 82,000 people (0.3% of the population) living in Australia compared to the ABS’ previous estimates. At the state level the biggest...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Jun 26 2017
    The national accounts data reported a very surprising 1.6% contraction in export volumes in the first three months of the year, which dragged quarterly GDP growth down to just 0.3% q/q. Domestic...
  • NEW REPORT | Jun 22 2017
    Malaysia is an evolving market which is driven by industry trends, demographic factors, economic indicators and government policy changes. Receive quarterly forecasts for the residential,...
    NEW REPORT | Jun 15 2017
    This report examines the commercial office market in Canberra. It provides a 10 year forecast of supply and demand variables, vacancies, prime rents, yields and market values. Investment returns and...
    NEW REPORT | Jun 13 2017
    Residential Property Prospects 2017 – 2020 is a comprehensive report that provides a detailed and independent view of the fundamentals of the residential market and how they interact to drive activity...
    NEW REPORT | Jun 09 2017
    This report examines the commercial office market in Perth. It provides 10 year forecasts of demand and supply variables as well as vacancies for the metropolitan and CBD markets. 10 year forecasts...
    Data Insights | Jun 08 2017
    After a record AU$9bn surplus in Q1 2017, the trade balance fell back to AU$0.6bn in April (from AU$3.1bn in March). Driving this decline was a sharp fall in non-rural goods exports (-11.8%m/m), while...
    Data Insights | Jun 07 2017
    As expected, Australia's economy slowed in the first three months of the year; GDP grew by 0.3% q/q in Q1 2017(1.7% y/y) down from 1.1% in the December quarter. ​

Global research

  • Research Briefings | Oct 18 2017
    ​In our global macro chartbook for October, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets. This month, we focus on the benign global outlook for 2018, our still bullish outlook...
    Research Briefings | Oct 17 2017
    Our analysis of global fixed income markets suggests the squeeze will continue to ease.Central bank action, particularly ECB tapering,will limit demand growth and the financial sector has been issuing...
    Research Briefings | Oct 16 2017
    ​​Japan's proximity and vulnerability to Korean conflict might be expected to weigh on the yen. But experience and logic suggest the opposite – heightened tensions have typically been accompanied by...
    Research Briefings | Oct 10 2017
    ​Emerging market credit conditions are mixed but, overall, we take a cautiously positive view. Our credit impulse measure varies across countries. But for EMs outside China the overall impulse is...
    Research Briefings | Oct 06 2017
    ​Advanced economies have this year enjoyed a rare positive supply surprise: output is higher than expected and inflation is lower. The initial China-related boost not only proved to be a great...
    Research Briefings | Oct 06 2017
    ​US non-financial corporations' aggregate balance sheets are in better shape than some conventional measures suggest, based on our analysis. This is despite increasing concern about elevated US...
  • Research Briefings | Sep 20 2017
    ​In our global macro chartbook for September, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets. This month, we focus on the further momentum in the world economy; the great rotation...
    Research Briefings | Sep 18 2017
    China’s key role in driving the improvement in world GDP growth over the past year has helped trigger more dynamic growth in advanced economies. There are signs that advanced economies’ strong...
    Research Briefings | Sep 15 2017
    EM central banks and governments have this year become the biggest buyers of US Treasuries, a trend that is likely to continue for a while. Our detailed analysis reveals dramatic shifts in global...
    Research Briefings | Sep 14 2017
    ​Unexpected pockets of credit risk, chiefly in property-backed securities, greatly exacerbated the financial crisis of 2007-10. Our survey of areas of credit risk today does indicate some potential...
    Research Briefings | Sep 13 2017
    ​Despite indications that compensation growth is firming in the US and Eurozone, low productivity growth, low inflation, skills mismatches and compositional restraints will limit the upside. We see US...
    Research Briefings | Sep 12 2017
    While a military conflict on the Korean peninsula still remains highly unlikely, our modelling suggests that even a very short-lived conflict could have a material impact on growth around the world...
  • Research Briefings | Sep 07 2017
    ​The pattern of global credit risks looks very different today than in 2007. Risks are now mostly centred in China and emerging markets. “Excess” private debt in China is as high as $3 trillion...
    Research Briefings | Sep 01 2017
    President Tump’s “fire and fury” comments in response to North Korea’s threats signified a new dynamic in US-North Korea relations. Against this backdrop, we examine how markets have historically...
    Research Briefings | Aug 24 2017
    EM rates and FX continue to benefit from disinflation, dollar weakness and a generally favourable external backdrop. A key consequence of a weaker dollar is improved cross-border dollar liquidity,...
    EM Asset Allocation | Aug 23 2017
    ​The weakness in the US dollar this year has bolstered our long-running constructive view on EM assets. We think the USD liquidity boost could continue for a good while yet. We have added to our EM...
    Research Briefings | Aug 22 2017
    ​Amid rising tensions on the Korean peninsula, we examine the historical impact of conflict on economic activity. Looking at 372 episodes of interstate and internal conflicts over the past half...
    Research Briefings | Aug 18 2017
    ​Global house price developments do not justify a hawkish stance by the major central banks. Valuations only look stretched in a few OECD countries, while the evidence suggests that ‘wealth effects’...
  • Research Briefings | Aug 18 2017
    ​In our global macro chartbook for August, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets. This month, we focus on recent inflation developments, the fading boost to global...
    Research Briefings | Aug 17 2017
    ​The decline in the US dollar isn’t done yet. While the short-term consolidation was likely, and is healthy, there are no evident catalysts for the dollar to enjoy a sustained rally. We see EUR/USD...
    Research Briefings | Aug 16 2017
    ​There are fears that crunch ECB and Fed meetings in September will cause large increases in yields. However, worries about policy normalisation are pitted against a shortage of stores of value as...
    Research Briefings | Aug 15 2017
    ​The North Korea-related rise in volatility is unlikely to last. Our growth forecasts imply that earnings growth is likely to remain strong. Euro strength is not a major headwind to European EPS...
    Global Asset Allocation | Aug 14 2017
    The volatility unleashed by the Kim-Trump double act is unlikely to reverse the recent decline in the dollar. Dollar weakness is a reflationary boost to the world, even though extended late-cycle...
    Research Briefings | Aug 09 2017
    ​The sharp bull-steepening in the BRL sovereign curve reflects the market's expectation of a lower Selic rate by the end of the year. We see potential for the curve to steepen by another 75bp in the...
  • Research Briefings | Aug 08 2017
    Rich valuations imply a reasonable possibility of a significant correction. Our model-based simulations suggest a 10% decline caused by a reduction in “irrational exuberance” could have a major impact...
    Research Briefings | Aug 03 2017
    Key global drivers of world trade suggest momentum will continue in Q3. Our analysis shows the Eurozone and US contributing more to the trade cycle in the short term as China’s economy cools. This...
    Research Briefings | Aug 03 2017
    China is propelling world trade more so now than ever before. Since 2010, China’s impact has strengthened markedly relative to the US and Eurozone; the correlation between current Chinese activity and...
    Research Briefings | Aug 02 2017
    The sharp move higher in EUR/CHF is a delayed response to the repricing in core European yields. Our end-2017 forecast for the cross of 1.13 has been hit much earlier as a result. We now see it rising...
    Research Briefings | Aug 01 2017
    ​​Although China largely kick-started the recovery in global trade, its import growth has been falling since Q1. Meanwhile, strengthening demand outside of Asia has boosted China’s exports and they...
    Research Briefings | Jul 27 2017
    Portfolio flows into EM local currency assets have been surging, staying remarkably resilient to the slightly hawkish tilt of major central banks last month. While some turbulence is possible in H2...
  • Research Briefings | Jul 26 2017
    EM assets still carry a sizeable premium relative to their DM counterparts despite 18 months of inflows. Robust world growth and plentiful liquidity leave few apparent reasons for concern about...
    Research Briefings | Jul 24 2017
    Beware the current conventional thinking on when and how the global central banks will scale back QE. While our baseline scenarios are very much in line with the “keeping it simple’ philosophy of...
    Research Briefings | Jul 21 2017
    ​In our global macro chartbook for July, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets. We focus on central bank dilemmas, China’s resilience being a bit stronger and its impact...
    Research Briefings | Jul 19 2017
    ​Our assessment of global credit indicators suggests there’s a risk that world growth could dip from the current rate of around 3% to closer to 2.5% later this year, but possibly pick up again in...
    Research Briefings | Jul 13 2017
    ​The recent rates tantrum has further boosted our long-running view of US dollar weakness. Relative repricing of central banks' policy paths boosts their respective currencies (euro, sterling, Swedish...
    Research Briefings | Jul 12 2017
    ​Earnings growth momentum remains positive in most major markets. But valuations are rich, and markets are contending with adverse shocks such as the recent mini-rates tantrum and further oil price...

Recent Consulting Projects

Growth Areas for Warehousing
A materials handling company engaged BIS Oxford Economics to assist its regional growth strategy, by identifying local areas with the strongest potential nationwide over the next five years in demand for warehousing, transport and distribution services. We provided a PDF report plus supporting charts and figures.

Insolvencies in the Construction Industry
BIS Oxford Economics conducted a research project for a government agency to understand the extent and incidence of insolvency in the construction sector, and to forecast the projected rate of insolvency over the next 5 years. The findings helped the agency concerned to shape an appropriate policy response.

Demand for Selected Building Materials
A major funds manager commissioned BIS Oxford Economics to model the demand for selected building materials in the Australian market. The resulting forecasting tool allows the client to inform its investment decisions through a robust understanding of the evolution in building materials intensity.