Please Wait

BIS Oxford Economics

BIS Shrapnel are excited to announce that Oxford Economics, one of the world’s foremost independent global advisory firms has acquired a controlling stake in BIS Shrapnel. The new company will be renamed BIS Oxford Economics.
*** FOLLOW US ON TWITTER ***

Latest analysis from Australia

  • Research Briefings | Aug 14 2018
    There are some signs that US interest rate rises are tightening monetary conditions in Australia, with the 90-day bank bill swap rate (BBSW) up by 25bps since the start of the year. This has led some...
    Data Insights | Aug 07 2018
    The RBA Board has kept the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. They continue to expect economic growth to be just over 3% in 2018 and 2019, and still see the next move in the cash rate as an increase
    Data Insights | Aug 02 2018
    After a steep fall in the trade surplus in April and a slight recovery in May, the trade balance has now resoundingly jumped back above the A$1bn mark, to A$1.9bn in June. Strong and broad-based...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Jul 12 2018
    Growth continues to be driven by exports and business investment, with consumers still held back by persistent headwinds. But merchandise exports are trending up, and the business confidence surveys...
    Data Insights | Jul 04 2018
    The trade surplus rebounded after April’s sharp decline, recovering to A$827mn. Both exports and imports of goods advanced strongly, growing by 5% and 4% on the month respectively. Services exports...
    Data Insights | Jul 03 2018
    The RBA has kept the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%, as expected. They continue to see consumer spending as the main headwind domestically - private consumption rose by just 0.3% q/q in the March quarter...
  • Country Economic Forecasts | Jun 15 2018
    The economy accelerated in Q1, growing 1% on the quarter after a 0.5% increase in the last three months of 2017. Net exports and inventories were significant drivers, contributing 0.35% pts and 0.2%...
    Data Insights | Jun 07 2018
    The trade surplus slipped back slightly in April, to A$977m, after recording surpluses of over $1bn in the first three months of 2018. Exports declined, weighed down by a 2% m/m fall in non-rural...
    Data Insights | Jun 06 2018
    Growth was stronger than expected in the first three months of 2018, with output expanding 1% on the quarter and 3.1% y/y. Helped by a rebound in commodities, exports increased by 2.4% q/q, which led...
    Data Insights | Jun 05 2018
    The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% in today's Board meeting. Wages growth and price inflation have yet to budge despite the record-low policy rate, and with the economy still absorbing spare...
    Country Economic Forecasts | May 14 2018
    The high frequency data are broadly in line with our forecast. The recent slowdown in employment growth has been accompanied by a dip in the consumer confidence surveys, although they remain in...
    Australia Data Insights | May 01 2018
    ​As widely expected, the RBA Board kept the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% at its May meeting. The RBA’s central forecast is for headline inflation to be slightly above 2% in 2018, broadly similar to our...
  • Australia Research Briefings | Apr 16 2018
    The cut in the US corporate tax rate has re-opened the debate about Australia’s attractiveness as an investment destination, and the economy’s ability to stimulate private sector investment and jobs...
    Australia Data Insights | Apr 05 2018
    The balance on goods and services in February recorded an $825m surplus, down $127m from January's surplus of $952m. Exports were flat, with a surge in rural exports being offset by a $505m fall in...
    Australia Data Insights | Apr 03 2018
    As expected, the RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. Stagnant wage growth and uncertainty surrounding household consumption continues to feature on the agenda, while a positive outlook on...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Mar 13 2018
    Momentum in Australia’s economy slowed in Q4 2017, with GDP growth falling back to 0.4% q/q – this took full-year growth in 2017 to 2.3%. Consumer spending was surprisingly robust, and government...
    Data Insights | Mar 08 2018
    After a disappointing end to 2017, the merchandise trade balance bounced back in January, recording a A$1bn surplus. Exports increased by 4% m/m with both goods (5% m/m) and services (1% m/m) seeing a...
    Australia Data Insights | Mar 07 2018
    As expected the pace of growth moderated in the December quarter, with GDP rising 0.4% q/q, down from 0.7% in Q3. The slowdown was surprisingly modest given the most recent data, with a 1% q/q rebound...
  • Australia Data Insights | Mar 06 2018
    As expected the RBA kept the cash rate at 1.5%, with the Board signalling the accommodative monetary policy is still necessary to support the economy. They continue to flag that it will be some time...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Feb 14 2018
    Households continue to exert a drag on the economy, with the Q4 retail turnover data confirming a broadly subdued picture for spending. But continued strong growth in employment presents some upside...
    Research Briefings | Feb 13 2018
    The recent boom in house prices has led to a sharp increase in households’ mortgage liabilities, which has raised questions about long term sustainability. But our analysis suggests that these...
    Australia Data Insights | Feb 06 2018
    As expected the RBA kept the cash rate at 1.5%. The Board remains concerned about weak household income growth and consumer spending, but they expect net exports and non-mining business investment and...
    Australia Data Insights | Feb 06 2018
    The balance on goods and services slide sharply into deficit in December, to $1.36bn. Robust growth in imports of goods drove much of the fall in the trade balance, particularly with intermediate...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Jan 17 2018
    The recent high-frequency survey data have largely confirmed the picture of steady but not spectacular growth in Australia’s economy. Exports continue to benefit from positive global momentum, but...
  • Data Insights | Jan 05 2018
    Australia’s trade balance slid to a $628m deficit in November, following a downward revision of the October data. Non-rural and services exports both grew by 2% but total exports were broadly flat on...
    Australia Data Insights | Dec 13 2017
    GDP grew 0.6% q/q in the September quarter, driven by a surge in nonresidential investment related to LNG projects. Outside of investment, domestic demand was sluggish with consumer spending...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Dec 12 2017
    Growth in Q3 was broadly in line with our forecast, with the economy expanding by 0.6% q/q after an upwardly revised 0.9% expansion in Q2. Private investment was the key driver of demand, contributing...
    Data Insights | Dec 08 2017
    ​The latest ABS housing finance data saw the national number of seasonally adjusted owner-occupier loans (excluding refinancing) remain relatively flat in October (-1%). 
    Australia Data Insights | Dec 07 2017
    Australia’s trade surplus tumbled to just A$105m in October, led by a 2.8% m/m drop in exports. The fall in exports was broad-based, with goods decreasing by 3.1% over the month and services by 1.6%....
    Data Insights | Dec 06 2017
    GDP grew 0.6% q/q in the September quarter, driven by a surge in non-residential investment related to LNG projects. Outside of investment, domestic demand was sluggish with consumer spending...
  • Data Insights | Nov 30 2017
    ​The latest ABS building approvals data saw seasonally adjusted total dwelling approvals increase a marginal 1% nationally in October compared to the previous month.
    Abstract Free | Nov 26 2017
    Jobs growth has been exceptionally robust in 2017 and the unemployment rate has dropped down to 5.4%, prompting some analysts to speculate that there is a case for the central bank to start tightening...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Nov 13 2017
    The high frequency data continue to show a mixed picture. Retail sales data for Q3 confirmed that households are still struggling, with turnover in real AUD terms increasing by just 0.1%. But the...
    Data Insights | Nov 07 2017
    As widely expected, the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia leftthe cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The Board noted that global growth momentum remains solid, and that forward-looking indicators for...
    Australia Data Insights | Nov 02 2017
    Australia’s trade surplus surged to A$1.7bn in September, driven by a 2.9% m/m increase in exports. The pick-up in exports was broad-based, with goods increasing 3.3% over the month and services 1.4%....
    NEW REPORT | Oct 31 2017
    Comprehensive outlooks for the residential land market in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth or Adelaide. Each report begins with a macro overview, drilling down to subregional lot production and...

Global research

  • Research Briefings | Aug 14 2018
    The collapse of the lira has thrust Turkey into a currency crisis, leaving the authorities with two difficult options to prevent it from morphing into a debt and liquidity crisis: either accept an...
    Research Briefings | Aug 13 2018
    We demonstrate the extent to which slower Chinese activity has a relatively strong impact on Asian economies and some Latin American commodity exporters. Open European economies are also at risk,...
    Research Briefings | Aug 13 2018
    Our in-house FX risk indicator explains 50% of cross-EM variation in currency movements associated with Turkey’s 18% sell-off since 10 August. MXN and ZAR have suffered more than our risk indicator...
    Research Briefings | Aug 07 2018
    After three weeks of unusual silence, China announced on Friday it will impose retaliatory tariffs on $60bn worth of imports from the US if the Trump administration places more tariffs on Chinese...
    Latest Analysis | Aug 07 2018
    Between April and August, we revised down the level of world trade growth in 2019 by over 0.5 ppt, and we now project it to slow from 5% this year to 4% in 2019. Risks are skewed to the downside,...
    Research Briefings | Aug 06 2018
    Businesses have become even more pessimistic about the global economy, based on our latest survey of global risk perceptions. Most respondents judge risks to growth to be weighted slightly to the...
  • Research Briefings | Aug 01 2018
    Greece’s experience with binary “stay or go” populism suggests that, even when a government has a secure majority, attempts to impose radical solutions will fail if they defy national consensus. Stay...
    Research Briefings | Jul 31 2018
    Trade wars hit aggregate global trade, but their effects are complex and there can be some winners. We use a multi-sector, multi-country trade model to build three topical sets of trade war scenarios....
    Research Briefings | Jul 27 2018
    US protectionism is likely to be mildly inflationary in the US, while having modest deflationary impacts in the rest of the world in the medium term. While this will not prevent underlying global...
    Research Briefings | Jul 26 2018
    President Trump and EU Commission President Juncker announced on Wednesday that they had agreed to work toward "zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers, and zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods"...
    Research Briefings | Jul 23 2018
    The world’s two biggest economies are squaring up to each other over trade. Lack of communication, strong ideological beliefs and basically non-negotiable strategic ambitions have brought us to the...
    Research Briefings | Jul 23 2018
    The world’s two biggest economies are squaring up to each other over trade. Lack of communication, strong ideological beliefs and basically non-negotiable strategic ambitions have brought us to the...
  • Research Briefings | Jul 19 2018
    Our latest analysis of global credit conditions surveys reveals a diverging picture, with improvement in the G7 but worsening in EM. Overall, the global surveys point to near-term global growth...
    Global Macro Themes and Asset Views Chartbooks | Jul 19 2018
    Global macro themes and asset views chartbook, July 2018In our global macro chartbook for July, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights...
    Latest Analysis | Jul 16 2018
    After the euphoria of 2017, the outlook has undoubtedly become more clouded. We nudged our global GDP growth forecasts lower in May and highlighted increased downside risks to the outlook, but we...
    Research Briefings | Jul 13 2018
    An encouraging lesson from the 1930s is that long-term output losses from protectionism may be lower than feared. But the period also demonstrates the march of globalisation is not a given; and that...
    Research Briefings | Jul 12 2018
    Our newly created financial indicator index (FCI) for advanced economies (AEs) suggests that financial conditions have only moderately eased since the financial market weakness in February and have...
    EMS | Jul 11 2018
    In a survey that delves beneath global headlines, our economists identify (or anticipate) fuel-related social and political tensions in 44% (25/57) of emerging markets. Higher fuel prices led to...
  • Research Briefings | Jul 11 2018
    The US-China trade conflict has deepened further as the US prepares for further tariffs. Although a resumption of talks seems unlikely at the moment, increased domestic opposition to the trade war in...
    Research Briefings | Jul 09 2018
    US public polling is, on the surface, comforting for the global economy. While surveys confirm entrenched US support for steel and aluminium tariffs, our in-depth review highlights more limited...
    Research Briefings | Jul 06 2018
    Immediately after the US imposed 25% tariffs on US$34 billion of imports from China today, China retaliated in kind. While the impact of these moves will be modest, the big worry is on escalating...
    Research Briefings | Jul 06 2018
    As of today, the US administration is imposing 25% tariffs on $34 billion of imported goods from China. This is the first tranche in a total of $50 billion of targeted imports by the US administration...
    Research Briefings | Jul 05 2018
    Although uncertainties have clearly increased this year and pose downside risks to growth, the latest batch of timely activity indicators suggests that in the shorter term the global economy is...
    Research Briefings | Jul 03 2018
    Despite its extended weak run, the global manufacturing PMI remains broadly in line with the average reading in 2017 and at a level that is consistent with further solid global industrial production...
  • Research Briefings | Jul 03 2018
    ​Since March, eight key emerging markets (EM) have felt obliged to raise rates. This is a reminder that the problem of pro-cyclicality – EM being forced to tighten monetary policy in response to...
    Research Briefings | Jul 02 2018
    ​The global trade conflict is at risk of a serious escalation. Recent tariff threats, if realised, would extend high tariffs to over 4% of world imports – a tenfold rise. This comes just as the global...
    Research Briefings | Jun 29 2018
    The pronounced depreciation of the CNY in the second half of June has been a sharp break from the trend of the previous few months and has unnerved financial markets. We think it reflects market...
    Research Briefings | Jun 29 2018
    The 1 July presidential election may be one of the most pivotal in Mexico’s history. Left-wing candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is expected to win – if elected, he’d be the first president...
    Research Briefings | Jun 28 2018
    Fluctuations in the level of firms’ inventories can sometimes exacerbate upturns and downturns in the wider business cycle. However, we find no obvious signs that the weak start to 2018 is likely to...
    Research Briefings | Jun 27 2018
    Emerging markets (EMs) have provided a key source of demand in global fixed income markets. But we identify both temporary and structural reasons why EMs’ role may diminish, potentially placing upward...
  • Research Briefings | Jun 25 2018
    We see growing risks of dollar strength contributing to drawn-out weakness in the global economy. The fear involves a self-perpetuating cycle in which a stronger greenback drains global liquidity,...
    Research Briefings | Jun 25 2018
    After President Erdogan and his ruling AKP party swept to victory in yesterday’s pivotal presidential and parliamentary elections, the focus turns to how Erdogan’s rhetoric during the campaign will...
    Research Briefings | Jun 22 2018
    ​Today OPEC delivered on its promise to raise oil output, with a nominal increase of 1mb/day agreed in principle. As some producers within the group are unable to boost production, we expect this to...
    Research Briefings | Jun 21 2018
    By threatening to impose 10% tariff on an additional US$200 billion of imports from China, the US President Trump has upped the ante on the trade conflict between the two. China has quickly vowed to...
    Research Briefings | Jun 20 2018
    As we had anticipated, the US administration upped the ante by threatening to impose 10% tariffs on $200 billion of imports from China. Combined with the announced tariffs on $50 billion of imports...
    Latest Analysis | Jun 19 2018
    We do not expect Italy to be in a position where the sustainability of its public finances is seriously questioned. Government debt as a share of GDP should gradually fall, even in a less benign...

Recent Consulting Projects

Growth Areas for Warehousing
A materials handling company engaged BIS Oxford Economics to assist its regional growth strategy, by identifying local areas with the strongest potential nationwide over the next five years in demand for warehousing, transport and distribution services. We provided a PDF report plus supporting charts and figures.

Insolvencies in the Construction Industry
BIS Oxford Economics conducted a research project for a government agency to understand the extent and incidence of insolvency in the construction sector, and to forecast the projected rate of insolvency over the next 5 years. The findings helped the agency concerned to shape an appropriate policy response.

Demand for Selected Building Materials
A major funds manager commissioned BIS Oxford Economics to model the demand for selected building materials in the Australian market. The resulting forecasting tool allows the client to inform its investment decisions through a robust understanding of the evolution in building materials intensity.