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Business Forecasting Conferences – March 2018

BIS Oxford Economics' Business Forecasting Conferences will examine economic drivers, emerging cyclical and structural shifts, policy issues, the logic of investment, regional and industry prospects and changing financial and business conditions.
*** 108th BUSINESS FORECASTING CONFERENCE – MARCH 2018 ***

Latest analysis from Australia

  • Country Economic Forecasts | Feb 14 2018
    Households continue to exert a drag on the economy, with the Q4 retail turnover data confirming a broadly subdued picture for spending. But continued strong growth in employment presents some upside...
    Research Briefings | Feb 13 2018
    The recent boom in house prices has led to a sharp increase in households’ mortgage liabilities, which has raised questions about long term sustainability. But our analysis suggests that these...
    Australia Data Insights | Feb 06 2018
    As expected the RBA kept the cash rate at 1.5%. The Board remains concerned about weak household income growth and consumer spending, but they expect net exports and non-mining business investment and...
    Australia Data Insights | Feb 06 2018
    The balance on goods and services slide sharply into deficit in December, to $1.36bn. Robust growth in imports of goods drove much of the fall in the trade balance, particularly with intermediate...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Jan 17 2018
    The recent high-frequency survey data have largely confirmed the picture of steady but not spectacular growth in Australia’s economy. Exports continue to benefit from positive global momentum, but...
    Data Insights | Jan 05 2018
    Australia’s trade balance slid to a $628m deficit in November, following a downward revision of the October data. Non-rural and services exports both grew by 2% but total exports were broadly flat on...
  • Australia Data Insights | Dec 13 2017
    GDP grew 0.6% q/q in the September quarter, driven by a surge in nonresidential investment related to LNG projects. Outside of investment, domestic demand was sluggish with consumer spending...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Dec 12 2017
    Growth in Q3 was broadly in line with our forecast, with the economy expanding by 0.6% q/q after an upwardly revised 0.9% expansion in Q2. Private investment was the key driver of demand, contributing...
    Data Insights | Dec 08 2017
    ​The latest ABS housing finance data saw the national number of seasonally adjusted owner-occupier loans (excluding refinancing) remain relatively flat in October (-1%). 
    Australia Data Insights | Dec 07 2017
    Australia’s trade surplus tumbled to just A$105m in October, led by a 2.8% m/m drop in exports. The fall in exports was broad-based, with goods decreasing by 3.1% over the month and services by 1.6%....
    Data Insights | Dec 06 2017
    GDP grew 0.6% q/q in the September quarter, driven by a surge in non-residential investment related to LNG projects. Outside of investment, domestic demand was sluggish with consumer spending...
    Data Insights | Nov 30 2017
    ​The latest ABS building approvals data saw seasonally adjusted total dwelling approvals increase a marginal 1% nationally in October compared to the previous month.
  • Abstract Free | Nov 26 2017
    Jobs growth has been exceptionally robust in 2017 and the unemployment rate has dropped down to 5.4%, prompting some analysts to speculate that there is a case for the central bank to start tightening...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Nov 13 2017
    The high frequency data continue to show a mixed picture. Retail sales data for Q3 confirmed that households are still struggling, with turnover in real AUD terms increasing by just 0.1%. But the...
    Data Insights | Nov 07 2017
    As widely expected, the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia leftthe cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The Board noted that global growth momentum remains solid, and that forward-looking indicators for...
    Australia Data Insights | Nov 02 2017
    Australia’s trade surplus surged to A$1.7bn in September, driven by a 2.9% m/m increase in exports. The pick-up in exports was broad-based, with goods increasing 3.3% over the month and services 1.4%....
    NEW REPORT | Oct 31 2017
    Comprehensive outlooks for the residential land market in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth or Adelaide. Each report begins with a macro overview, drilling down to subregional lot production and...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Oct 17 2017
    The high frequency surveys continue to report a divergence between business and consumer confidence. Although the October Westpac-MI sentiment index jumped into positive territory, the underlying...
  • Research Briefings | Oct 16 2017
    Unlike some developed economies, we do not expect the RBA to begin tightening policy in the near term (our previous article discusses the interest rate outlook ). And when the cash rate does begin to...
    Australia Data Insights | Oct 05 2017
    Australia’s trade surplus edged higher to A$989mn in August, with exports rising 0.5% m/m and imports falling slightly. The pick-up in exports was broad-based, with both goods and services...
    Data Insights | Oct 03 2017
    As widely expected, the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The Board highlighted continued improvements in the global economy and strong...
    Research Briefings | Sep 28 2017
    We think the AUD will depreciate to around US$0.75 by June 2018 in part due to the US-Australia interest rate differential narrowing by more than markets expect – unlike the market consensus, we...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Sep 18 2017
    The pace of growth picked up in Q2, with the economy matching our forecast and expanding 0.8% q/q. Government spending drove domestic demand, with current consumption rising 1.2% and government...
    Data Insights | Sep 07 2017
    The trade balance fell to a $460 million surplus in July, a further decline from the historically high levels seen in the first three months of 2017. Exports fell 2.2%, driven down by non-rural goods,...
  • Data Insights | Sep 06 2017
    In line with our forecast, Australia’s economy grew by 0.8% q/q in Q2 2017, equivalent to 1.8% on the year. Government expenditure was the key driver, with current consumption increasing by 1.2% q/q...
    Data Insights | Sep 05 2017
    In line with expectations, the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to maintain the cash rate at 1.5%. The Board still expects growth to gradually accelerate over FY2018. They expect...
    NEW REPORT | Aug 24 2017
    This is the latest comprehensive study of the Melbourne industrial market undertaken by BIS Oxford Economics. This study analyses prime and secondary property markets in Melbourne. Our study provides...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Aug 18 2017
    Recent economic surveys have been mixed, with business confidence well into expansionary territory but consumer confidence showing pessimism across households. But we expect business confidence to...
    NEW REPORT | Aug 18 2017
    In partnership with our Economic Outlook service, our Long Term Forecasts report provides clients with in-depth analysis of the fundamental drivers of Australia’s economy for the next 15 years....
    NEW REPORT | Aug 11 2017
    This report provides forecasts and strategies for the Brisbane CBD, the Near City and metropolitan office markets. Ten year forecasts of supply and demand variables, vacancy rates, premium, A and B...
  • NEW REPORT | Aug 04 2017
    Building and Construction in India consists of an annual country report, plus three quarterly updates, and a ‘hotline’ consultancy which allows subscribers to access the consultants involved in the...
    Data Insights | Aug 03 2017
    The trade balance closed out FY17 with a $0.9 billion surplus, cooling on the back of a strong surplus in May. Driving this was a softening of non-rural exports (-3.6%m/m), while goods imports picked...
    NEW REPORT | Aug 02 2017
    Analyses trends and gives forecasts for residential and non-residential building within states, by regional area. The forecasting horizon is 2 years ahead. Each state sold separately. Annual...
    Data Insights | Aug 01 2017
    As widely expected, the Board of the Reserve Bank decided to maintain the cash rate at 1.5%. The Board highlighted continued improvements in the global economy and strong employment growth over recent...
    NEW REPORT | Jul 31 2017
    Building and Construction in Taiwan consists of an annual country report, plus three quarterly updates, and a ‘hotline’ consultancy which allows subscribers to access the consultants involved in the...
    Research Briefings | Jul 24 2017
    Australia will not be leaning toward tightening just yet. The end of the commodities boom has led to structural changes that are shifting resources – particularly labour – out of the mining sector....

Global research

  • Research Briefings | Feb 15 2018
    We now look for the Fed to tighten interest rates four times this year, up from our prior forecast of three hikes, absent large market turbulence that could temper the amount of rate increase.
    Research Briefings | Feb 15 2018
    ​Central banks moving from their cautious crisis stance back to more ‘standard’ policy setting rules would trigger a significant jump in short-term rates, our analysis shows.  Adding asset prices...
    Commodities Research Briefings | Feb 13 2018
    ​Over the past few years hopes have been raised that electric vehicle sales are set to rise exponentially.  This risks putting strains on existing supply chains for battery materials --...
    Research Briefings | Feb 12 2018
    Further global portfolio diversification will result in increased currency exposures, which could in turn lead to higher volatility and cross-country correlations in asset prices. These views are...
    Research Briefings | Feb 11 2018
    ​Higher volatility will likely persist for a little while. Further market downside from here is really a call on upside inflation surprises.We still think inflation will rise only gradually and...
    Research Briefings | Feb 08 2018
    The weakening of the US dollar over the last year may add over 3% to the level of world trade, according to our estimates.  The absence of marked dollar-appreciation in the current market turmoil...
  • Research Briefings | Feb 08 2018
    ​The recent rise in global bond yields reflects both ‘good’ news in the form of stronger growth and possibly also concerns about higher inflation. A possible risk to the global economy in the coming...
    Research Briefings | Feb 07 2018
    The broad rise in bond yields in the advanced economies since the start of the year appears to mainly reflect changes in the implied policy path for interest rates and higher term premia, rather than...
    Research Briefings | Feb 06 2018
    We find it unlikely that this market episode will be associated with a sustained economic downturn. The ingredients are inconsistent with that most fearsome of scenarios in which inflation picks up...
    Research Briefings | Feb 06 2018
    ​Why hasn't bitcoin gained more traction as a payment method Transaction times vary; the technology infrastructure is out of reach for many businesses; and thanks to the investment craze, bitcoin's...
    Research Briefings | Feb 05 2018
    Despite the recent economic strength filtering through to higher market-based inflation expectations, we still consider the upside risks to our CPI inflation forecasts for the advanced economies to be...
    Research Briefings | Feb 01 2018
    The benign inflation response to the global economic expansion could come under threat if firms were to start raising prices to boost margins. Indeed, surveys of firms’ own price expectations and...
  • Research Briefings | Jan 31 2018
    ​As widely anticipated, the FOMC kept rates unchanged, following a rate increase on December 13 and in keeping with a gradual pace of tightening. We look for the next rate hike to take place at the...
    Research Briefings | Jan 30 2018
    Weexpect EM recycling of global financial flows to continue to support liquidity in global fixed income markets. But EM involvement heightens reversal risks given: (i) EM have accumulated a massive...
    Research Briefings | Jan 26 2018
    ​Italy’s election on 4 March is the most immediate risk to the “Euroboom”, the Eurozone’s stretch of above-trend growth. Yet economic, political and cultural developments in the country suggest the...
    Research Briefings | Jan 26 2018
    ​Economic and cultural stresses have eased a little over the past year, based on our updated European populism scorecard. Yet stress levels remain elevated in some countries, most notably in Italy and...
    Research Briefings | Jan 25 2018
    ​Some pick-up in advanced economy wage growth is likely this year, and the bullish global outlook could lead central banks to be more hawkish. But downside risks to wages pose a policy dilemma. The...
    Research Briefings | Jan 24 2018
    ​In our global macro chartbook for January, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights over the last month. This month, we focus on how last...
  • Research Briefings | Jan 24 2018
    ​Equity prices have surged from already-high levels last August, with valuations scaling even loftier heights. Our analysis, based on historical evidence, suggests short-term risks are broadly...
    Research Briefings | Jan 18 2018
    ​Prospects for key drivers suggest this period of macro-stability is as durable as the so-called Great Stability (1990-2006), which in turn may prolong the boost to the global economy and asset prices...
    Research Briefings | Jan 15 2018
    ​A unilateral US exit from NAFTA is a real possibility. Negotiations are slow and difficult, and the recent passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act may embolden the administration to take a more...
    Research Briefings | Jan 11 2018
    ​World GDP growth is on course to strengthen in the coming months, based on our analysis of central banks’ credit standards surveys, which show looser corporate credit conditions in the G7 countries...
    Research Briefings | Jan 10 2018
    In general, the recent pick-up in labour force participation in the advanced economies appears to be more than a cyclical phenomenon associated with previously discouraged workers re-entering the...
    Research Briefings | Jan 05 2018
    Growth in global consumer spending power is set to accelerate again in 2018, thanks to stabilising energy bills, positive labour market dynamics, and, in some emerging markets, easing borrowing costs....
  • Research Briefings | Jan 04 2018
    The long stretch of uninterrupted economic growth and the flattening of the US yield curve have led some commentators to question the durability of the expansions in advanced economies. Yet our...
    Research Briefings | Dec 15 2017
    ​In our global macro chartbook for December, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights over the last month. We focus on our above-consensus...
    Research Briefings | Dec 14 2017
    The ECB’s scaling back of its QE programme in 2018 could be more disruptive to global financial markets than the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet unwinding. ECB bond purchases led Eurozone...
    Research Briefings | Dec 14 2017
    ​Most leading indicators of world trade point to growth remaining robust in the next few months, but there are some headwinds, especially from Asia. Overall, we expect trade growth to decelerate next...
    Research Briefings | Dec 08 2017
    A breakdown of recent labour market trends shows that stronger-than-expected labour supply growth in the advanced economies has been broad based. For the majority, the surprise has been partly driven...
    Research Briefings | Dec 07 2017
    ​We update our assessments of valuations of emerging market (EM) currencies following the sell-off that started in September, and compare these with available returns over dollar funding. Recent FX...
  • Research Briefings | Dec 05 2017
    We head into 2018 in a fairly optimistic mood. The current upswing is more broadly based than any other since the global financial crisis, and – unusually by recent standards – the new year approaches...
    Research Briefings | Dec 04 2017
    ​Broad-based global growth augurs well for global corporate earnings. Extended earnings cycles should, in turn, support valuations at expensive levels while helping underperformers catch up. Subdued...
    Research Briefings | Nov 30 2017
    ​World investment growth looks set to come in at 4% this year, the fastest pace since 2014. The outlook remains positive with investment indicators for advanced economies looking robust and an...
    Research Briefings | Nov 30 2017
    Employment growth in the advanced economies has recently been the strongest since 2007. But in the region as a whole, the pick-up appears to reflect new entrants to the labour market gaining jobs,...
    Research Briefings | Nov 29 2017
    ​The global economy may have entered a sustained period of stability. We find that: (i) global macro volatility has plummeted (it’s not just the VIX!); (ii) economic surprises have become more muted;...
    Research Briefings | Nov 21 2017
    ​The near-term growth outlook for emerging markets (EM) looks positive with external conditions favourable and policy settings mostly supportive. There are risks around our baseline connected to...

Recent Consulting Projects

Growth Areas for Warehousing
A materials handling company engaged BIS Oxford Economics to assist its regional growth strategy, by identifying local areas with the strongest potential nationwide over the next five years in demand for warehousing, transport and distribution services. We provided a PDF report plus supporting charts and figures.

Insolvencies in the Construction Industry
BIS Oxford Economics conducted a research project for a government agency to understand the extent and incidence of insolvency in the construction sector, and to forecast the projected rate of insolvency over the next 5 years. The findings helped the agency concerned to shape an appropriate policy response.

Demand for Selected Building Materials
A major funds manager commissioned BIS Oxford Economics to model the demand for selected building materials in the Australian market. The resulting forecasting tool allows the client to inform its investment decisions through a robust understanding of the evolution in building materials intensity.