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BIS Oxford Economics

BIS Shrapnel are excited to announce that Oxford Economics, one of the world’s foremost independent global advisory firms has acquired a controlling stake in BIS Shrapnel. The new company will be renamed BIS Oxford Economics.
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Latest analysis from Australia

  • Country Economic Forecasts | Jun 15 2018
    The economy accelerated in Q1, growing 1% on the quarter after a 0.5% increase in the last three months of 2017. Net exports and inventories were significant drivers, contributing 0.35% pts and 0.2%...
    Data Insights | Jun 07 2018
    The trade surplus slipped back slightly in April, to A$977m, after recording surpluses of over $1bn in the first three months of 2018. Exports declined, weighed down by a 2% m/m fall in non-rural...
    Data Insights | Jun 06 2018
    Growth was stronger than expected in the first three months of 2018, with output expanding 1% on the quarter and 3.1% y/y. Helped by a rebound in commodities, exports increased by 2.4% q/q, which led...
    Data Insights | Jun 05 2018
    The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% in today's Board meeting. Wages growth and price inflation have yet to budge despite the record-low policy rate, and with the economy still absorbing spare...
    Country Economic Forecasts | May 14 2018
    The high frequency data are broadly in line with our forecast. The recent slowdown in employment growth has been accompanied by a dip in the consumer confidence surveys, although they remain in...
    Australia Data Insights | May 01 2018
    ​As widely expected, the RBA Board kept the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% at its May meeting. The RBA’s central forecast is for headline inflation to be slightly above 2% in 2018, broadly similar to our...
  • Australia Research Briefings | Apr 16 2018
    The cut in the US corporate tax rate has re-opened the debate about Australia’s attractiveness as an investment destination, and the economy’s ability to stimulate private sector investment and jobs...
    Australia Data Insights | Apr 05 2018
    The balance on goods and services in February recorded an $825m surplus, down $127m from January's surplus of $952m. Exports were flat, with a surge in rural exports being offset by a $505m fall in...
    Australia Data Insights | Apr 03 2018
    As expected, the RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. Stagnant wage growth and uncertainty surrounding household consumption continues to feature on the agenda, while a positive outlook on...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Mar 13 2018
    Momentum in Australia’s economy slowed in Q4 2017, with GDP growth falling back to 0.4% q/q – this took full-year growth in 2017 to 2.3%. Consumer spending was surprisingly robust, and government...
    Data Insights | Mar 08 2018
    After a disappointing end to 2017, the merchandise trade balance bounced back in January, recording a A$1bn surplus. Exports increased by 4% m/m with both goods (5% m/m) and services (1% m/m) seeing a...
    Australia Data Insights | Mar 07 2018
    As expected the pace of growth moderated in the December quarter, with GDP rising 0.4% q/q, down from 0.7% in Q3. The slowdown was surprisingly modest given the most recent data, with a 1% q/q rebound...
  • Australia Data Insights | Mar 06 2018
    As expected the RBA kept the cash rate at 1.5%, with the Board signalling the accommodative monetary policy is still necessary to support the economy. They continue to flag that it will be some time...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Feb 14 2018
    Households continue to exert a drag on the economy, with the Q4 retail turnover data confirming a broadly subdued picture for spending. But continued strong growth in employment presents some upside...
    Research Briefings | Feb 13 2018
    The recent boom in house prices has led to a sharp increase in households’ mortgage liabilities, which has raised questions about long term sustainability. But our analysis suggests that these...
    Australia Data Insights | Feb 06 2018
    As expected the RBA kept the cash rate at 1.5%. The Board remains concerned about weak household income growth and consumer spending, but they expect net exports and non-mining business investment and...
    Australia Data Insights | Feb 06 2018
    The balance on goods and services slide sharply into deficit in December, to $1.36bn. Robust growth in imports of goods drove much of the fall in the trade balance, particularly with intermediate...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Jan 17 2018
    The recent high-frequency survey data have largely confirmed the picture of steady but not spectacular growth in Australia’s economy. Exports continue to benefit from positive global momentum, but...
  • Data Insights | Jan 05 2018
    Australia’s trade balance slid to a $628m deficit in November, following a downward revision of the October data. Non-rural and services exports both grew by 2% but total exports were broadly flat on...
    Australia Data Insights | Dec 13 2017
    GDP grew 0.6% q/q in the September quarter, driven by a surge in nonresidential investment related to LNG projects. Outside of investment, domestic demand was sluggish with consumer spending...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Dec 12 2017
    Growth in Q3 was broadly in line with our forecast, with the economy expanding by 0.6% q/q after an upwardly revised 0.9% expansion in Q2. Private investment was the key driver of demand, contributing...
    Data Insights | Dec 08 2017
    ​The latest ABS housing finance data saw the national number of seasonally adjusted owner-occupier loans (excluding refinancing) remain relatively flat in October (-1%). 
    Australia Data Insights | Dec 07 2017
    Australia’s trade surplus tumbled to just A$105m in October, led by a 2.8% m/m drop in exports. The fall in exports was broad-based, with goods decreasing by 3.1% over the month and services by 1.6%....
    Data Insights | Dec 06 2017
    GDP grew 0.6% q/q in the September quarter, driven by a surge in non-residential investment related to LNG projects. Outside of investment, domestic demand was sluggish with consumer spending...
  • Data Insights | Nov 30 2017
    ​The latest ABS building approvals data saw seasonally adjusted total dwelling approvals increase a marginal 1% nationally in October compared to the previous month.
    Abstract Free | Nov 26 2017
    Jobs growth has been exceptionally robust in 2017 and the unemployment rate has dropped down to 5.4%, prompting some analysts to speculate that there is a case for the central bank to start tightening...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Nov 13 2017
    The high frequency data continue to show a mixed picture. Retail sales data for Q3 confirmed that households are still struggling, with turnover in real AUD terms increasing by just 0.1%. But the...
    Data Insights | Nov 07 2017
    As widely expected, the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia leftthe cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The Board noted that global growth momentum remains solid, and that forward-looking indicators for...
    Australia Data Insights | Nov 02 2017
    Australia’s trade surplus surged to A$1.7bn in September, driven by a 2.9% m/m increase in exports. The pick-up in exports was broad-based, with goods increasing 3.3% over the month and services 1.4%....
    NEW REPORT | Oct 31 2017
    Comprehensive outlooks for the residential land market in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth or Adelaide. Each report begins with a macro overview, drilling down to subregional lot production and...
  • Country Economic Forecasts | Oct 17 2017
    The high frequency surveys continue to report a divergence between business and consumer confidence. Although the October Westpac-MI sentiment index jumped into positive territory, the underlying...
    Research Briefings | Oct 16 2017
    Unlike some developed economies, we do not expect the RBA to begin tightening policy in the near term (our previous article discusses the interest rate outlook ). And when the cash rate does begin to...
    Australia Data Insights | Oct 05 2017
    Australia’s trade surplus edged higher to A$989mn in August, with exports rising 0.5% m/m and imports falling slightly. The pick-up in exports was broad-based, with both goods and services...
    Data Insights | Oct 03 2017
    As widely expected, the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The Board highlighted continued improvements in the global economy and strong...
    Research Briefings | Sep 28 2017
    We think the AUD will depreciate to around US$0.75 by June 2018 in part due to the US-Australia interest rate differential narrowing by more than markets expect – unlike the market consensus, we...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Sep 18 2017
    The pace of growth picked up in Q2, with the economy matching our forecast and expanding 0.8% q/q. Government spending drove domestic demand, with current consumption rising 1.2% and government...

Global research

  • Research Briefings | Jun 21 2018
    By threatening to impose 10% tariff on an additional US$200 billion of imports from China, the US President Trump has upped the ante on the trade conflict between the two. China has quickly vowed to...
    Research Briefings | Jun 20 2018
    As we had anticipated, the US administration upped the ante by threatening to impose 10% tariffs on $200 billion of imports from China. Combined with the announced tariffs on $50 billion of imports...
    Latest Analysis | Jun 19 2018
    We do not expect Italy to be in a position where the sustainability of its public finances is seriously questioned. Government debt as a share of GDP should gradually fall, even in a less benign...
    Latest Analysis | Jun 19 2018
    We do not expect Italy to be in a position where the sustainability of its public finances is seriously questioned. Government debt as a share of GDP should gradually fall, even in a less benign...
    Research Briefings | Jun 18 2018
    The impact of ECB tapering and balance sheet unwind will be softened by strong demand from European private investors, who will themselves unwind severe portfolio dislocations. These investors may...
    Research Briefings | Jun 18 2018
    In the context of rising trade tensions, we debunk two myths. First, current account balances are neither “good” nor “bad”, they simply reflect a country’s net national saving – which is declining in...
  • Research Briefings | Jun 15 2018
    The surprising resilience of China’s growth this year has been a very helpful buffer for the global economy amid various emerging headwinds. But yesterday’s economic data suggest that the slowdown in...
    Global Macro Themes and Asset Views Chartbooks | Jun 15 2018
    In our global macro chartbook for June, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights over the last month.This month, the risks from rising...
    Research Briefings | Jun 13 2018
    ​The rancorous atmosphere at the recent G7 summit comes at an inopportune time for the world economy. The decision by the US to press ahead with metals tariffs risks an escalating series of...
    Research Briefings | Jun 11 2018
    ​We assess the exposure of major EMs to a trio of downside risks to growth; exposure to oil price rises, slowing world trade growth and external liquidity pressures. Most EM should not be hit too hard...
    Latest Analysis | Jun 05 2018
    We do not envisage major central banks being pricked into deflationary action by the oil spike as there are limited concerns over a wage-price spiral. But further rises – say to $100pb – would sour...
    Research Briefings | Jun 01 2018
    It is plausible that cross-border bond purchases will average $0.5 trn in 2018 and 2019, a dramatic fall from $1.2 trn in 2017, driven mainly by reductions in European and US purchases. This will...
  • Research Briefings | May 31 2018
    The ongoing strength of the oil price may prompt a modest rise in non-energy inflation and wages, and slightly weaker GDP growth. But the shock is unlikely to be a game-changer for monetary policy –...
    Research Briefings | May 31 2018
    ​The US decision to impose tariffs on metals imports from Mexico and the latter's move to apply retaliatory measures on goods from its northern neighbor reveal how far apart the countries remain on...
    Research Briefings | May 31 2018
    The Trump administration will allow the temporary steel and aluminum tariff exemptions for the European Union, Mexico and Canada to expire at midnight. We don’t believe the economic fallout will be...
    Research Briefings | May 30 2018
    ​Most oil shocks since 1973 have been associated with world recessions or growth slowdowns. But the recent price surge looks modest in historical context and as such is likely to have only a moderate...
    Research Briefings | May 30 2018
    ​The US announced that it will go ahead with its plan to impose 25% tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese imports, targeting sectors included in China’s “Made in China 2025” strategy. It also...
    Research Briefings | May 29 2018
    Our $100pb oil simulations reveal a peak impact in 2020, knocking 0.7% off the level of global GDP. Inflation rises 1.2pp above our May baseline by 2019, threatening the global ‘Goldilocks’...
  • Research Briefings | May 24 2018
    In only one of 12 large advanced economies do we expect 2018 consumption to outstrip GDP growth. As key drivers rotate, the impact of a recovery in real incomes will be dampened by higher oil prices...
    Research Briefings | May 23 2018
    ​Emerging market (EM) currencies and local debt have sold off since mid-April, although there is a wide spread of performance across EMs. We find that both FX and local bond performance in EMs is well...
    Research Briefings | May 21 2018
    ​The joint US-China statement of May 19 shows that increased communication between the two on trade, investment and technology policies in recent weeks has reduced trade tension. However, while...
    Latest Analysis | May 21 2018
    While the global economy ended 2017 on the crest of a wave, the fear is that it will now break sooner than previously thought. The favourable global backdrop should ensure that upcoming turbulence is...
    Homepage | May 17 2018
    ​Rising US interest rates pose a potential threat to emerging markets (EMs) through a variety of channels, with the extent of the risk varying widely across economies. Taking into account the range of...
    Research Briefings | May 16 2018
    In our global macro chartbook for May, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights over the last month.This month, the risks from rising...
  • Research Briefings | May 11 2018
    The sizeable and broad-based nature of the recent falls in the PMIs suggests that the co-ordinated acceleration in global GDP growth perhaps has run its course. But this is consistent with our...
    Research Briefings | May 10 2018
    Wage growth in the advanced economies has recently risen to multi-year highs, a sign that diminishing labour market slack may be strengthening workers’ negotiating positions in pay deals. While we see...
    Research Briefings | May 09 2018
    ​Businesses have become significantly more pessimistic about the world economy over the past three months. There is now a widespread perception that risks to growth are skewed to the downside, based...
    Research Briefings | May 09 2018
    ​President Trump’s unilateral plans to tighten sanctions against Iran and pull out of the JCPOA agreement could see Iranian oil production and exports fall sharply. The threat has helped oil prices...
    Latest Analysis | May 08 2018
    ​There are some reasons for cautious optimism about the outlook for productivity growth in advanced economies. The productivity slowdown associated with the global financial crisis is likely to...
    Research Briefings | May 08 2018
    The US decision to reinstate “the highest level of economic sanctions” on Iran will lead to gradually and modestly reduced oil production by the world’s fifth largest producer. In an environment of...
  • Research Briefings | May 04 2018
    April’s PMI data appear to provide further evidence that global GDP growth may now have passed its cyclical peak. However, for now, we do not expect the abrupt drop in the composite PMI since February...
    Research Briefings | May 03 2018
    ​Rising global interest rates are set to push up private sector debt service ratios (DSRs) in most economies over the next year. This matters because some economies already have high DSRs and there...
    Research Briefings | May 03 2018
    ​As trade talks between the US and China begin in Beijing, we examine how markets have responded to rising trade war frictions since 2016. Identifying 29 distinct events, we find: (i) a flight to safe...
    Research Briefings | Apr 27 2018
    Higher oil prices present a risk to growth momentum and inflation. We simulate the impact of oil prices reaching $85pb in 2018 Q3 and remain there through 2020. World GDP falls 0.6% below baseline by...
    Research Briefings | Apr 26 2018
    While the results of the 2018 European Banking Authority’s (EBA) stress test for Italian banks will not be available until November, our modelling finds the sector is much better placed to weather...
    Research Briefings | Apr 26 2018
    ​While the US-China trade frictions could escalate, causing major economic impact, we think it is more likely that tariff imposition will be contained. But broader economic tension and rivalry between...

Recent Consulting Projects

Growth Areas for Warehousing
A materials handling company engaged BIS Oxford Economics to assist its regional growth strategy, by identifying local areas with the strongest potential nationwide over the next five years in demand for warehousing, transport and distribution services. We provided a PDF report plus supporting charts and figures.

Insolvencies in the Construction Industry
BIS Oxford Economics conducted a research project for a government agency to understand the extent and incidence of insolvency in the construction sector, and to forecast the projected rate of insolvency over the next 5 years. The findings helped the agency concerned to shape an appropriate policy response.

Demand for Selected Building Materials
A major funds manager commissioned BIS Oxford Economics to model the demand for selected building materials in the Australian market. The resulting forecasting tool allows the client to inform its investment decisions through a robust understanding of the evolution in building materials intensity.