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BIS Oxford Economics

BIS Shrapnel are excited to announce that Oxford Economics, one of the world’s foremost independent global advisory firms has acquired a controlling stake in BIS Shrapnel. The new company will be renamed BIS Oxford Economics.
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Latest analysis from Australia

  • Australia Data Insights | Dec 13 2017
    GDP grew 0.6% q/q in the September quarter, driven by a surge in nonresidential investment related to LNG projects. Outside of investment, domestic demand was sluggish with consumer spending...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Dec 12 2017
    Growth in Q3 was broadly in line with our forecast, with the economy expanding by 0.6% q/q after an upwardly revised 0.9% expansion in Q2. Private investment was the key driver of demand, contributing...
    Data Insights | Dec 08 2017
    ​The latest ABS housing finance data saw the national number of seasonally adjusted owner-occupier loans (excluding refinancing) remain relatively flat in October (-1%). 
    Australia Data Insights | Dec 07 2017
    Australia’s trade surplus tumbled to just A$105m in October, led by a 2.8% m/m drop in exports. The fall in exports was broad-based, with goods decreasing by 3.1% over the month and services by 1.6%....
    Data Insights | Dec 06 2017
    GDP grew 0.6% q/q in the September quarter, driven by a surge in non-residential investment related to LNG projects. Outside of investment, domestic demand was sluggish with consumer spending...
    Data Insights | Nov 30 2017
    ​The latest ABS building approvals data saw seasonally adjusted total dwelling approvals increase a marginal 1% nationally in October compared to the previous month.
  • Abstract Free | Nov 26 2017
    Jobs growth has been exceptionally robust in 2017 and the unemployment rate has dropped down to 5.4%, prompting some analysts to speculate that there is a case for the central bank to start tightening...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Nov 13 2017
    The high frequency data continue to show a mixed picture. Retail sales data for Q3 confirmed that households are still struggling, with turnover in real AUD terms increasing by just 0.1%. But the...
    Data Insights | Nov 07 2017
    As widely expected, the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia leftthe cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The Board noted that global growth momentum remains solid, and that forward-looking indicators for...
    Australia Data Insights | Nov 02 2017
    Australia’s trade surplus surged to A$1.7bn in September, driven by a 2.9% m/m increase in exports. The pick-up in exports was broad-based, with goods increasing 3.3% over the month and services 1.4%....
    NEW REPORT | Oct 31 2017
    Comprehensive outlooks for the residential land market in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth or Adelaide. Each report begins with a macro overview, drilling down to subregional lot production and...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Oct 17 2017
    The high frequency surveys continue to report a divergence between business and consumer confidence. Although the October Westpac-MI sentiment index jumped into positive territory, the underlying...
  • Research Briefings | Oct 16 2017
    Unlike some developed economies, we do not expect the RBA to begin tightening policy in the near term (our previous article discusses the interest rate outlook ). And when the cash rate does begin to...
    Australia Data Insights | Oct 05 2017
    Australia’s trade surplus edged higher to A$989mn in August, with exports rising 0.5% m/m and imports falling slightly. The pick-up in exports was broad-based, with both goods and services...
    Data Insights | Oct 03 2017
    As widely expected, the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The Board highlighted continued improvements in the global economy and strong...
    Research Briefings | Sep 28 2017
    We think the AUD will depreciate to around US$0.75 by June 2018 in part due to the US-Australia interest rate differential narrowing by more than markets expect – unlike the market consensus, we...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Sep 18 2017
    The pace of growth picked up in Q2, with the economy matching our forecast and expanding 0.8% q/q. Government spending drove domestic demand, with current consumption rising 1.2% and government...
    Data Insights | Sep 07 2017
    The trade balance fell to a $460 million surplus in July, a further decline from the historically high levels seen in the first three months of 2017. Exports fell 2.2%, driven down by non-rural goods,...
  • Data Insights | Sep 06 2017
    In line with our forecast, Australia’s economy grew by 0.8% q/q in Q2 2017, equivalent to 1.8% on the year. Government expenditure was the key driver, with current consumption increasing by 1.2% q/q...
    Data Insights | Sep 05 2017
    In line with expectations, the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to maintain the cash rate at 1.5%. The Board still expects growth to gradually accelerate over FY2018. They expect...
    NEW REPORT | Aug 24 2017
    This is the latest comprehensive study of the Melbourne industrial market undertaken by BIS Oxford Economics. This study analyses prime and secondary property markets in Melbourne. Our study provides...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Aug 18 2017
    Recent economic surveys have been mixed, with business confidence well into expansionary territory but consumer confidence showing pessimism across households. But we expect business confidence to...
    NEW REPORT | Aug 18 2017
    In partnership with our Economic Outlook service, our Long Term Forecasts report provides clients with in-depth analysis of the fundamental drivers of Australia’s economy for the next 15 years....
    NEW REPORT | Aug 11 2017
    This report provides forecasts and strategies for the Brisbane CBD, the Near City and metropolitan office markets. Ten year forecasts of supply and demand variables, vacancy rates, premium, A and B...
  • NEW REPORT | Aug 04 2017
    Building and Construction in India consists of an annual country report, plus three quarterly updates, and a ‘hotline’ consultancy which allows subscribers to access the consultants involved in the...
    Data Insights | Aug 03 2017
    The trade balance closed out FY17 with a $0.9 billion surplus, cooling on the back of a strong surplus in May. Driving this was a softening of non-rural exports (-3.6%m/m), while goods imports picked...
    NEW REPORT | Aug 02 2017
    Analyses trends and gives forecasts for residential and non-residential building within states, by regional area. The forecasting horizon is 2 years ahead. Each state sold separately. Annual...
    Data Insights | Aug 01 2017
    As widely expected, the Board of the Reserve Bank decided to maintain the cash rate at 1.5%. The Board highlighted continued improvements in the global economy and strong employment growth over recent...
    NEW REPORT | Jul 31 2017
    Building and Construction in Taiwan consists of an annual country report, plus three quarterly updates, and a ‘hotline’ consultancy which allows subscribers to access the consultants involved in the...
    Research Briefings | Jul 24 2017
    Australia will not be leaning toward tightening just yet. The end of the commodities boom has led to structural changes that are shifting resources – particularly labour – out of the mining sector....
  • NEW REPORT | Jul 24 2017
    This report examines the overall structure of retailing in Australia and draws out key trends and issues in terms of both trading conditions and investment performance. It focuses on the main classes...
    NEW REPORT | Jul 21 2017
    China is an evolving market driven by industry trends, demographic factors, economic indicators and government policy changes. Receive quarterly forecasts for residential, non-residential and...
    Country Economic Forecasts | Jul 20 2017
    Recent data have confirmed our view that growth will remain steady in the short term. Merchandise exports rebounded in May after a sharp contraction in April (a result of disruption caused by Cyclone...
    NEW REPORT | Jul 20 2017
    Provides a respected and independent medium term assessment of the Australian building industry outlook. Building in Australia contains demographic trends and detailed forecasts of residential...
    NEW REPORT | Jul 07 2017
    Indonesia is an evolving market driven by industry trends, demographic factors, economic indicators and government policy changes. Receive quarterly forecasts for residential, non-residential and...
    Data Insights | Jul 06 2017
    Strong surpluses continue in May, with the trade balance strengthening to $2.5 billion. Driving this was strength in both rural (2.9% m/m) and non-rural (12.7% m/m) goods exports, while imports also...

Global research

  • Research Briefings | Dec 14 2017
    The ECB’s scaling back of its QE programme in 2018 could be more disruptive to global financial markets than the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet unwinding. ECB bond purchases led Eurozone...
    Research Briefings | Dec 14 2017
    ​Most leading indicators of world trade point to growth remaining robust in the next few months, but there are some headwinds, especially from Asia. Overall, we expect trade growth to decelerate next...
    Research Briefings | Dec 08 2017
    A breakdown of recent labour market trends shows that stronger-than-expected labour supply growth in the advanced economies has been broad based. For the majority, the surprise has been partly driven...
    Research Briefings | Dec 07 2017
    ​We update our assessments of valuations of emerging market (EM) currencies following the sell-off that started in September, and compare these with available returns over dollar funding. Recent FX...
    Research Briefings | Dec 05 2017
    We head into 2018 in a fairly optimistic mood. The current upswing is more broadly based than any other since the global financial crisis, and – unusually by recent standards – the new year approaches...
    Research Briefings | Dec 04 2017
    ​Broad-based global growth augurs well for global corporate earnings. Extended earnings cycles should, in turn, support valuations at expensive levels while helping underperformers catch up. Subdued...
  • Research Briefings | Nov 30 2017
    ​World investment growth looks set to come in at 4% this year, the fastest pace since 2014. The outlook remains positive with investment indicators for advanced economies looking robust and an...
    Research Briefings | Nov 30 2017
    Employment growth in the advanced economies has recently been the strongest since 2007. But in the region as a whole, the pick-up appears to reflect new entrants to the labour market gaining jobs,...
    Research Briefings | Nov 29 2017
    ​The global economy may have entered a sustained period of stability. We find that: (i) global macro volatility has plummeted (it’s not just the VIX!); (ii) economic surprises have become more muted;...
    Research Briefings | Nov 21 2017
    ​The near-term growth outlook for emerging markets (EM) looks positive with external conditions favourable and policy settings mostly supportive. There are risks around our baseline connected to...
    Research Briefings | Nov 21 2017
    Our latest estimates suggest that in the middle of this year the global economy recorded the best six-month period of GDP growth since 2010. With no sign of a major loss of momentum in the latter part...
    Research Briefings | Nov 20 2017
    The idea that QE-fuelled demand for bonds has been the crucial factor driving down global yields is a myth. We have consistently argued that one key reason was actually a lack of supply. Furthermore,...
  • Research Briefings | Nov 16 2017
    Positive omens! In our global macro chartbook for November, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets. We focus on upward revisions to our 2018 forecasts for global trade and...
    Research Briefings | Nov 15 2017
    ​Persistently subdued public-sector wages in major economies helps underpin our below-consensus view of the outlook for global inflation, given the still important role of the public sector as a...
    Research Briefings | Nov 14 2017
    ​Higher oil prices are a risk to growth momentum and benign inflation. We run a scenario in which prices average $65pb between 2017Q4 and 2019Q4, $10pb above our baseline. The peak impact entails...
    Research Briefings | Nov 13 2017
    Despite upward revisions to our forecasts for global GDP growth, oil and commodity prices in 2018 we still expect underlying inflation pressures in the advanced economies to build only slowly,...
    Research Briefings | Nov 10 2017
    It’s been many moons since emerging markets (EMs) could actually look forward to welcoming a new year without a crisis looming somewhere. EMs are set to start 2018 on a high note, propelled by a broad...
    Research Briefings | Nov 08 2017
    ​The big rise in emerging market (EM) debt in recent years has created the greatest risks to growth and stability in Chile, Turkey and Malaysia, based on our analysis of a range of indicators. China...
  • Research Briefings | Nov 08 2017
    ​The global economy appears set to remain in good shape in 2018 as the broad-based economic strength seen this year will carry over. Accordingly, we have revised up our world trade forecast by 0.5pp...
    Research Briefings | Nov 06 2017
    Looking at the strength of the global economy, it’s no surprise that simple policy rules suggest that interest rates in some advanced economies are much too low and/or that several rate hikes would be...
    Research Briefings | Nov 01 2017
    ​As anticipated, the FOMC kept the fed funds target range unchanged at 1% - 1.25%. Also in line with our expectation, there were no material changes to the policy statement. Economic growth remains...
    Industry Research Briefings | Oct 30 2017
    E-mobility will alter traditional automotive supply chains. However, significant charging infrastructure requirements, broad reliance on government support, as well as bottlenecks in the supply of...
    Research Briefings | Oct 23 2017
    ​Export data from large Asian manufacturing exporting economies are a timely gauge of the strength of global trade. They suggest that, after the strong expansion in early 2017, global trade slowed...
    Research Briefings | Oct 23 2017
    Based on the latest IMF Global Financial Stability report we identify those economies where household debt could pose a risk to growth and financial stability. Australia, Canada, Korea, Norway, and...
  • Research Briefings | Oct 19 2017
    ​The external environment for emerging markets (EMs) is currently in a ‘sweet spot’ with EM benefitting from stronger world trade, higher commodity prices, more buoyant capital inflows and a weaker...
    Research Briefings | Oct 18 2017
    ​In our global macro chartbook for October, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets. This month, we focus on the benign global outlook for 2018, our still bullish outlook...
    Research Briefings | Oct 17 2017
    Our analysis of global fixed income markets suggests the squeeze will continue to ease.Central bank action, particularly ECB tapering,will limit demand growth and the financial sector has been issuing...
    Research Briefings | Oct 16 2017
    ​​Japan's proximity and vulnerability to Korean conflict might be expected to weigh on the yen. But experience and logic suggest the opposite – heightened tensions have typically been accompanied by...
    Research Briefings | Oct 10 2017
    ​Emerging market credit conditions are mixed but, overall, we take a cautiously positive view. Our credit impulse measure varies across countries. But for EMs outside China the overall impulse is...
    Research Briefings | Oct 06 2017
    ​Advanced economies have this year enjoyed a rare positive supply surprise: output is higher than expected and inflation is lower. The initial China-related boost not only proved to be a great...
  • Research Briefings | Oct 06 2017
    ​US non-financial corporations' aggregate balance sheets are in better shape than some conventional measures suggest, based on our analysis. This is despite increasing concern about elevated US...
    Research Briefings | Sep 20 2017
    ​In our global macro chartbook for September, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets. This month, we focus on the further momentum in the world economy; the great rotation...
    Research Briefings | Sep 18 2017
    China’s key role in driving the improvement in world GDP growth over the past year has helped trigger more dynamic growth in advanced economies. There are signs that advanced economies’ strong...
    Research Briefings | Sep 15 2017
    EM central banks and governments have this year become the biggest buyers of US Treasuries, a trend that is likely to continue for a while. Our detailed analysis reveals dramatic shifts in global...
    Research Briefings | Sep 14 2017
    ​Unexpected pockets of credit risk, chiefly in property-backed securities, greatly exacerbated the financial crisis of 2007-10. Our survey of areas of credit risk today does indicate some potential...
    Research Briefings | Sep 13 2017
    ​Despite indications that compensation growth is firming in the US and Eurozone, low productivity growth, low inflation, skills mismatches and compositional restraints will limit the upside. We see US...

Recent Consulting Projects

Growth Areas for Warehousing
A materials handling company engaged BIS Oxford Economics to assist its regional growth strategy, by identifying local areas with the strongest potential nationwide over the next five years in demand for warehousing, transport and distribution services. We provided a PDF report plus supporting charts and figures.

Insolvencies in the Construction Industry
BIS Oxford Economics conducted a research project for a government agency to understand the extent and incidence of insolvency in the construction sector, and to forecast the projected rate of insolvency over the next 5 years. The findings helped the agency concerned to shape an appropriate policy response.

Demand for Selected Building Materials
A major funds manager commissioned BIS Oxford Economics to model the demand for selected building materials in the Australian market. The resulting forecasting tool allows the client to inform its investment decisions through a robust understanding of the evolution in building materials intensity.